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skin by Nostalgia
내년도 광고시장에 관한 견해가 여러가지 요인 때문에 엇갈리고 있다고 한다. 뭐 광고 시장 자체는 그다지 관심이 없었는데, 광고 소비 증가율 그래프를 보니 GDP그래프의 모양과 정확히 일치하는게 아닌가! GDP증가율 그래프를 세로로 늘리면 정확히 광고소비 증가율 그래프가 되는 듯하다. GDP증가율을 이렇게 정확히 반영하는 분야가 있다니 말이다. 내가 무지한걸까. ㅋㅋ
이코노미스트 Hard sell Jan 24th 2008
Jan 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Ad-spending usually plunges when economic growth slows. Will it be any different this time?
WHEN the American arm of Hyundai, a South Korean carmaker, said last week that it was worried about the economy and may cancel its plans to advertise in the Super Bowl, American football's grand finale, on February 3rd, the advertising and media industries shuddered. Marketing spending is one of the first things companies decide to cut when faced with slowing sales. Suddenly a recession in ad-spending seemed imminent. In the event, Hyundai decided to stay in, but buyers and sellers of ad-space know that it is only a matter of time before someone somewhere pulls out for real.
Yet, even as stockmarkets tumble and economies falter, some ad-men expect the knife to cut most deeply in 2009 rather than in 2008. Maurice Lévy, chief executive of Publicis Groupe, a French advertising firm, reckons that despite the chance of a recession in America, 2008 will be a good year for sellers of ad-space. Three big-ticket events—America's presidential election, the Olympics in Beijing and the European football championship—could add as much as 1% of additional growth to advertising expenditure, he says, which could partially offset economic weakness.
Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of WPP, another big advertising group, acknowledges that people are anxious. But his clients are not cutting their ad budgets yet and he expects 2008 to be a reasonable year. By contrast 2009 does not have big “quadrennial” political or sporting events, and so could be painful. A new American president will dole out any unpleasant economic medicine immediately, ahead of the mid-term elections, says Sir Martin. That would hit 2009 too.
It is just possible that advertising budgets may prove more resilient than in the past. That is because the internet has brought greater accountability to advertising. Marketing chiefs can now prove that a click on an online ad produces a sale. Firms are trying to impose the same discipline on television and other media spending.
“Now when companies raise their budgets they do so more responsibly,” says Jonathan Barnard, head forecaster at ZenithOptimedia, a unit of Publicis, “and they're less likely to see marketing as a frivolous expense ripe for cutting.” In past booms, he says, money spent on advertising grew much faster than the economy, and ad-spending as a share of GDP shot up. That effect was marked in 1999-2000, when dotcom start-ups ploughed much of their newly raised capital straight into marketing. This has not happened today, so ad-spending may not have as far to drop.